Hard Brexit, trade, and the border
Today’s announcement by the Prime Minister Theresa May that Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon will be triggered in March 2017 has brought into sharp focus the potential impact that a hard Brexit could...
View ArticleFake news didn’t make Trump president – there is just as much junk on the...
As the world reacts to the news that Donald Trump has been elected the 45th President of the United States, the role of social media in general and Facebook in particular has come under close scrutiny...
View ArticleUK exports have boomed since the Brexit referendum, but mostly to the EU
In the immediate aftermath of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union on the 23rd of June 2016, the pound fell sharply against other major currencies. At the time of writing, £1...
View ArticleDublin Airport – Northern Ireland’s gateway to the world
Yesterday’s announcement that Brussels Airlines are withdrawing their route from Belfast City Airport to Brussels is the latest in a series of setbacks for Northern Ireland’s aviation sector, following...
View ArticleForecasting the 2017 Assembly Election
The snap Assembly election called for the 2nd of March 2017 will be the first to return 5 MLAs from each constituency, reducing the total number of MLAs from 108 to 90. This, combined with indications...
View ArticleRunning to stand still – how the move from six seats to five seats could hurt...
Previously, I looked at what might be expected from next month’s Assembly election if the current polling, showing a fall in support for the DUP with a corresponding rise in support for the Alliance...
View ArticleIt’s Groundhog Day! Looking ahead to a potential second 2017 Assembly Election
The clock is ticking. Following the seismic results of last Thursday’s Northern Ireland Assembly elections, the rules state that the local parties have three weeks to form a government before the...
View ArticleConstitutional recoupling – the rise in the Nationalist vote in context
The increase in the Nationalist vote at last week’s Assembly Election came as a surprise to many commentators. However, it is worth bearing in mind that support for the SDLP and Sinn Féin amongst the...
View ArticleIf #AE17 had been fought on the proposed new electoral boundaries
Unless there is a snap Assembly or Westminster election called within the next 18 months, this month’s Assembly Election will be the last Northern Ireland election to be fought under the existing 18...
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If #AE17 had been fought on the proposed new electoral boundaries
Unless there is a snap Assembly or Westminster election called within the next 18 months, this month’s Assembly Election will be the last Northern Ireland election to be fought under the existing 18...
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The problem with the Lib Dems’ anti-Brexit strategy
The snap General Election called for June 2017 would appear to be a significant opportunity for the Liberal Democrats. In contrast with Labour’s mixed messages on Brexit, the Lib Dems are offering a...
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Labour facing real risk of wipeout as their polling slump continues
The past days have seen a number of opinion polls released ahead of June’s General Election, and they continue to make grim reading for the Labour Party. The ComRes/Sunday Mirror poll gave the...
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Over the cliff edge – what would happen if exports to the EU were subject to...
The continuing deterioration of relations between the British Government and the European Union has led to a renewed focus on the possibility of a hard Brexit, where all trade between the UK and the...
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Will YouGov’s election model be vindicated when the results are in?
Opinion polling firm YouGov have raised eyebrows in the run up to Thursday’s poll with the results of their forecast model, which at the time of writing is forecasting that the Conservatives will only...
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Our Friends in the North? The DUP and the Tories aren’t ideologically close
Following the shock result of Thursday’s General Election, the Prime Minister has announced her intention to form a government with the help with her “friends and allies in the DUP”. The DUP and the...
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Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey suggests slight increase in support...
The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey for 2016, which was carried out last year and the results of which were released today, suggests that support for a united Ireland has increased in the wake...
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The Conservatives have a mountain to climb to challenge Labour’s social media...
In the wake of this year’s snap general election, it has become apparent that age, not social class, has become the new fault line in British politics. Analysis published by YouGov highlights the...
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What would a 32 county Dáil Éireann look like?
Public support for Irish unity amongst the Northern Ireland electorate has increased in recent years, with a recent Lucid Talk poll suggesting that a third of the electorate would vote for unity were a...
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Irish general election forecast – Fine Gael set to recover many of their 2016...
Fine Gael retained their status as largest party following the Irish general election of 2016, but were unable to put together a coalition after a collapse in support for their coalition partners,...
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Is Northern Ireland dramatically poorer than the Republic?
Before Ireland was partitioned in 1921, the six counties that were to become Northern Ireland were the powerhouse of the Irish economy. Two thirds of Ireland’s manufacturing capacity was in the six...
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